未平倉合約總數vs淨數
<p class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">間中大家會從不同媒體聽到有關"未平倉合約"這個名詞的消息, 個人認為</span></font><font size="3"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">未平倉合約對</span></font><font size="3"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">分析</span></font><font size="3"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">升跌動力有很大幫助, 所以再三在這裡重提<br></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;"><br></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">如果想分析未平倉合約</span><span lang="EN-US">,<span style=""> </span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;"><span style="color: Purple;">一定</span>要分開未平倉合約總數</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">簡稱總數</span><span lang="EN-US">),<span style=""> </span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">與未平倉合約淨數</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">簡稱淨數</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">來</span></font><font size="3"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">分析</span></font><font size="3"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;"></span><span lang="EN-US">.</span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><br></font></p><p class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><br><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: Red;">總數</span><span lang="EN-US">" </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">增加</span><span lang="EN-US">,<span style=""> </span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">即是市場上的人開新合約數目增加</span><span lang="EN-US">,<span style=""> </span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">新合約可以買升</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">也可以買跌</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: Red;">只會預示市場波幅增加</span><span style="color: Red;" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: Red;">對預測後市升跌方向啟示不大</span><span lang="EN-US">.<span style=""> </span><span style=""> </span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;"><br></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">順帶一提</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">開新倉與平倉離場會為市場增加動力</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">譬如開新好倉會增加上升動力</span><span lang="EN-US">,
</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">開新淡倉會增加下跌動力</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">平淡倉增加上升動力</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">平好倉增加下跌動力</span><span lang="EN-US">), </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">所以市場波幅增加</span><span lang="EN-US">. <br></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US"><br></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">由於股市走勢往往靠大戶推動, </span><span lang="EN-US">但從"</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">總數</span><span lang="EN-US">"之中就未能分辨出新倉是由散戶</span></font><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">開立</span></font><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">還是由大戶開立, 所以對</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">啟示</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">後市升跌</span><span lang="EN-US">效用不大. </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;"></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: Blue;">淨數</span><span lang="EN-US">” </span>是以所有結算系統參與者 (如證券行, 銀行) 內不同結算戶口的淨期指倉數<span style="font-family: 新細明體;">計算. 若大戶在少數</span>證券行/銀行開大量新倉時(不論是好倉淡倉),<span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">淨數</span><span lang="EN-US">”就會明顯增加, 相反</span></font><font size="3"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">大戶在少數</span>證券行/銀行</font><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">大量平倉則</span></font><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">淨數</span><span lang="EN-US">”會明顯減少</span></font><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">. </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;"> <br></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;"><br></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">如升市</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">淨數</span><span lang="EN-US">”增加, 啟示大戶在開好倉 , 上升動力增加. </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;"><br></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">如升市</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">淨數</span><span lang="EN-US">”減少, 啟示</span><span lang="EN-US">好友</span><span lang="EN-US">大戶在平倉止賺或是淡友大戶</span><span lang="EN-US">平倉止蝕, <br></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">如</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">升市</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">淨數</span><span lang="EN-US">”持續減少</span><span lang="EN-US">, 代表上升動力減弱.<br></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">跌市時, 情況則相反.</span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US"><br></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US"></span><span lang="EN-US"><br></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><br><span style="font-family: 新細明體;"></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">總括而言, </span><span style="color: Red;" lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: Red;">總數</span><span style="color: Red;" lang="EN-US">"啟示後市</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;"><span style="color: Red;">波幅大小</span>, </span><span style="color: Blue;" lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: Blue;">淨數</span><span style="color: Blue;" lang="EN-US">”</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="color: Blue;">啟示後市升跌動力及大戶取向</span>. <br></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">單</span><span lang="EN-US">一日的</span><span lang="EN-US">“</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">淨數</span><span lang="EN-US">”未必能準確</span><span lang="EN-US">判斷後市去向, </span><span lang="EN-US">如配合其他指標, 可增加測市準繩度. 而在期指結算日前後的未平倉合約升跌會受期指轉倉活動影響, 因此不能作準.</span></font></p><br><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">坊間</span></font><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">大部份人所講的"</span></font><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">未平倉合約數</span></font><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">"其實只是</span></font><font size="3"><span style="color: Red;" lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: Red;">總數</span><span style="color: Red;" lang="EN-US">"</span></font><span lang="EN-US"></span><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">,</span></font><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US"> 以</span></font><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">"</span></font><font size="3"><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: Blue;">淨數</span></font><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">"分析後市升跌動力的人少之又少. 大家最想知道的後市方向, </span></font><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">其實要靠</span></font><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US"></span></font><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">"</span></font><font size="3"><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: Blue;">淨數</span></font><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">"來推斷, <span style="color: Black;">所以</span></span></font><font style="color: Purple;" size="3"><span lang="EN-US"></span></font><font style="color: Purple;" size="3"><span lang="EN-US">"</span></font><font style="color: Purple;" size="3"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">淨數</span></font><font style="color: Purple;" size="3"><span lang="EN-US">"比</span></font><font style="color: Purple;" size="3"><span lang="EN-US"></span></font><font style="color: Purple;" size="3">"<span style="font-family: 新細明體;">總數</span>"</font><font style="color: Purple;" size="3"><span lang="EN-US">重要</span></font><font style="color: Purple;" size="3"><span lang="EN-US"> </span></font><font style="color: Purple;" size="3"><span lang="EN-US"></span></font><br><p class="MsoNormal"><br><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US"></span></font></p><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US">想知最新未平倉合約總數/淨數, 可參考以下網址 http://money.softbath.net/stock/open_interest_report.php<br><br></span></font> 三哥 呢啲資料非常有用, THXwph(79) wph(79) wph(79) very useful inf. thank you !!!wph(25) wph(67) wph(67) wph(67) 研究一下先
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