挾倉解讀
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">月及</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">月份期指曾經出現極速抽升</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">令牛熊證玩家嚇破膽</span><span lang="EN-US">. </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">老三在此為大家提供多一個解析</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">並且提出挾倉的先決條件</span><span lang="EN-US">.<br><br>
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</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">我們常見到新聞用</span><span lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">挾淡倉</span><span lang="EN-US">","</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">挾好倉</span><span lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">及</span><span lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">期指活動</span><span lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">等字</span> <span style="font-family: 新細明體;">眼來對急升急跌作出解析</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">但對大戶為何要</span><span lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">挾倉</span><span lang="EN-US">", </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">即挾倉動機就未能說明</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">大家苦無頭緒之際</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">就常常以</span><span lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">為挾而挾</span><span lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">的陰謀論作解析</span><span lang="EN-US">. </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">不過老三就認為大戶用真金白銀買賣期指</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">拋磚引玉試探對手實力這個動機尚有可能</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">但作出一些損人不利己的事</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">或</span><span lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">嚇一下對手</span><span lang="EN-US">", </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">等對手不敢輕舉妄動的幼稚行為就不可能發生</span><span lang="EN-US">. </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">老三認為<span style="color: red;">大戶在市場上所有行為的動機都不離最基本的原則</span></span><span style="color: red;" lang="EN-US">: "</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">迴避風險</span><span style="color: red;" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">尋找利潤</span><span style="color: red;" lang="EN-US">"</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">即是當市況對自己的持倉風險上升時</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">就作出行動令自己潛在損失降低</span><span lang="EN-US">.
</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">另外</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">當發現有潛在利潤高的投資</span><span lang="EN-US">/</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">投機機會時</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">就會主動採取行動爭取</span><span lang="EN-US">. </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">還有</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">大戶都要順勢而行才有利可圖</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">否則多多錢都唔夠輸</span><span lang="EN-US">. <br>
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</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">市場上所有人都渴望有</span><span lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">低風險</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">高回報</span><span lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">的入市機會</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">而<span style="color: black;">極速抽升原因就與</span></span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">迴避風險</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">尋找利潤</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">以及</span><span style="color: black;"> </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">尋找</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">低風險</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US">,
</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">高回報</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">的入市機會有關</span><span lang="EN-US">. </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">多數人都在想大戶挾倉是為了增加利潤</span><span style="color: red;" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">但我認為</span><span style="color: red;" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">推動這幾次挾倉主要原因是迴避風險</span><span style="color: red;" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">尋找利潤反而是次要問題</span><span style="color: red;" lang="EN-US">.</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">因為挾倉的是淡友大戶</span><span lang="EN-US">.<br>
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</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">先回顧一下大挾倉當日發生過什麼特別的事</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">下圖中圈住的</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">都是曾經出現大急升及急跌的日子</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">由左至右分別是</span><span lang="EN-US"><br>
<br>
08</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">11</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">21</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">日</span><span lang="EN-US">: </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">當日低位回升超過</span><span lang="EN-US">1300</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">點</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">之後即日回調</span><span lang="EN-US">600</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">點</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">調整浪見底日</span><span lang="EN-US"><br>
09</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">13</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">日</span><span lang="EN-US"> : </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">當日曾在三分鐘內急跌超過</span><span lang="EN-US">400</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">點</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">調整浪見底日</span><span lang="EN-US"><br>
09</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">14</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">日</span><span lang="EN-US"> : </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">當日曾在一分鐘內急升</span><span lang="EN-US">400</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">點</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">並即日確認調整浪完結</span><span lang="EN-US"><br>
09</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">4</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">日</span><span lang="EN-US"> : </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">當日約在三分鐘內急升</span><span lang="EN-US">400</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">點</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">並即日確認調整浪完結</span><span lang="EN-US"><br>
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<![endif]--><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 新細明體;">大家都可以見到一個共通點</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman";" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 新細明體;">就是挾倉前都曾經為先前四千多點升浪作中期調整</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman";" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">而挾倉當日就是調整浪見底或是確認調整浪完結之日</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman"; color: red;" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">隨之而來就是新升浪開始</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman";" lang="EN-US">, <br></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman";" lang="EN-US"><br></span><span lang="EN-US"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">
08</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">11</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">月及</span><span lang="EN-US">09</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">年</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">月的升浪共升約</span><span lang="EN-US">4000</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">點</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">而</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">月開始的升浪暫時升約</span><span lang="EN-US">2700</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">點</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">到</span><span lang="EN-US">21964</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">遇阻</span><span lang="EN-US">. </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">姑且不論今次會否再升</span><span lang="EN-US">4000</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">點</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">有一點十分重要的是</span><span style="color: red;" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">如果大戶在挾倉日企錯邊的話</span><span style="color: red;" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">下一浪就要冒損失</span><span style="color: red;" lang="EN-US">4000</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">點的風險</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">自</span><span lang="EN-US">10676</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">見底後</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">每個升浪都有</span><span lang="EN-US">4000</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">點以上</span><span lang="EN-US">).<br>
<br>
</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">當大戶知道調整即將完結</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">淡友快將投降之時</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">極速挾倉就會出現</span><span lang="EN-US">. </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">因為<span style="color: red;">此時淡友大戶如果要</span></span><span style="color: red;" lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">迴避風險</span><span style="color: red;" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">尋找利潤</span><span style="color: red;" lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">的話</span><span style="color: red;" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">最有效的應付方法就是平淡倉</span><span style="color: red;" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">再反手開好倉</span><span style="color: red;" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">那麼原先</span><span style="color: red;" lang="EN-US">4000</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">點的潛在損失就會變成潛在回報</span><span style="color: red;" lang="EN-US">. </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">在投資戒條中</span><span style="color: red;" lang="EN-US">,
"</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">唔輸</span><span style="color: red;" lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">比</span><span style="color: red;" lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">贏錢</span><span style="color: red;" lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">重要</span><span style="color: red;" lang="EN-US">,</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">況且在調整浪底建好倉是一件</span><span style="color: red;" lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">低風險</span><span style="color: red;" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">高回報</span><span style="color: red;" lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">的事</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">淡友何樂而不為呢</span><span lang="EN-US">?<span style="color: black;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">通常在調整即將完成或剛完成之時</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">市場往往最風聲鶴唳</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">而人人唱淡的時候</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">淡友戒備心也會下降</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US">. </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">原本在淡友完全控制大局的情形下</span><span style="color: red;" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">如果突然有淡友大戶意識到調整完結而變節做好友</span><span style="color: red;" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">就會出現人踩人式平淡倉</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US">. </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">因此在這種投降及變節的情況下</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">好友力量大增</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US">,
</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">繼而出現急升情形</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US">. </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">通常在挾倉當日的未平倉合約總數都會增加</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">總數增加也代表後市波幅增加</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">但對後市方向並無啟示</span><span lang="EN-US">. </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">啟示後市見底回升的原因下面再講</span><span lang="EN-US">.<br>
<span style="color: black;"><br>
</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">大戶如何判斷見底一事</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">可以參考下圖</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US">.</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;" lang="EN-US"> </span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal">[attach]3846[/attach]<br><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US"><o:p><br></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">圖中顯示</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">三次調整浪完結並在挾倉之前</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">都剛好運行五個子浪</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US">(7</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">月的</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US">"c"</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">浪也有五個子浪</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US">), </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">大戶主要用數浪方法判斷調整是否接近完成</span><span style="color: red;" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">如果該浪已運行五個子浪</span><span style="color: red;" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">但是由於再向下跌的動力不足</span><span style="color: red;" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">令技術指標出現底背馳的話</span><span style="color: red;" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red;">調整完成的機會就會增加</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US">. </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">而淡友大戶在此時的風險意識就會提升</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">並想辦法為撤退做準備</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US">.<br>
<br>
</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">不過有一點要提出</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">其實</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">並非每個調整浪完結都會出現這種挾倉情況</span><span lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">出現與否要看淡友大戶手中淡倉數量及平倉手法</span><span lang="EN-US">. </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">而</span><span lang="EN-US">7</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">月</span><span lang="EN-US">13</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">日先急跌至</span><span lang="EN-US">17050, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">第二日又急升的原因依我所見是</span><span lang="EN-US">: </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;">淡友大戶要先試一試經過<span style="color: black;">五個子浪調整後</span></span><span style="color: black;"> </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">有沒有足夠進一步下跌的動力</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">當發現下跌動力不足</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">第二日就反手造好</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US">.<br>
<br>
</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">總括而言</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US">, "</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">迴避風險</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US">, </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">尋找利潤</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US">"</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">就是挾倉動機</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US">,
</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black;">先決條件是要調整浪結束</span><span style="color: black;" lang="EN-US">.</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
[[i] 本帖最後由 老三 於 2009-9-27 18:37 編輯 [/i]] thx 老三 ~~~
要消化下先~wph(42) wph(42) wph(42) 我諗可以幫大家進一步了解股市升跌規則<br>睇新聞或報紙都唔會有類似解析的<br> thx 老三 老三wph(48) wph(185) 謝謝分享, 大家一齊捉浪去 wph(152) 三哥wph(31) , 你真係掂呀!!! Thxx for sharing! wph(119) wph(119) wph(119)
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